Why Republicans are starting to worry about 2020

Why Republicans are starting to worry about 2020

New polls that show president Donald Trump falling further and further and further behind former vice president, Joe Biden. One number has largely slipped through the cracks and it is a glaring warning signal for Republicans on the ballot as well. And here that number is 51% of registered voters. So they would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats in 2021. Well, just 40%. So they prefer a Republican controlled Congress. That’s according to a NBC wall street journal poll. Now that 11 point gap 51 40 for Democrats marks a major shift from January when the party had just a six point edge over Republicans. And that question is known as the generic ballot question, the pollsters, the generic ballot as long been used by political handicappers and pollsters as a sort of blunt instrument to understand voter sentiment.

Think of it as a sort of weather vain that tells you which way the political winds are blowing and roughly how strongly sidebar it’s called the generic ballot because no specific candidates names are used in the question, just Democrat and Republican and sidebar. Now traditionally small edges for either party three points or under on the generic ballot, tend to indicate small issue gains in Congress for that side and the election. But once, once that is a double digit lead, the generic ballot lookout that tends to correlate with much larger seat switches. So for example, CNN, last poll prior to the 2018 election showed Democrats with a 53 to 42% edge in the generic ballot, Democrats netted 40 seats and retook the majority days later sidebar, this election also led to a record number of women being elected with individual candidates achieving historic first, for example, Deb Holland and trees David’s became the first native American women elected to Congress, Ilhan, Omar and Rashida to leap became the first Muslim women elected to Congress.

And historically interesting sidebar. Now on the flip side, he flipped 70 flops in the 2010 midterm elections. The last CNN poll conducted before those showed Republicans with they six point lead and then generic, they won 63 seats and the house majority was a complete turnaround from 2008. When experts predicted that Democrats would endure a long stretch of power in the wake of Barack Obama’s massive election victory. All right. So given that history, you can see why Democrats current double digit age and the generic ballot should be of real concern to Republicans who started this election, talking about winning back the house majority and keeping their edge in the Senate. Quote, little doubt in election held today would be a Biden landslide, GOP wipe out tweeted, cook political report, house editor, David Wasserman, following the NBC wall street journal poll release in early June. He went on to add this, but the amount of the world has changed in the past five months and caution us. How much could look different five months from now. That’s true. And also true sidebar. Once upon a time, a young crystal Alyssa had so much hair then worked at the cook political report.

Now here’s the thing. When you combine generic ballot with national and swing state pulling on the presidential race, the clear concern coming out of the white house in regards to the state of the Senate and the massive financial ed for house Democrats over their GOP counterparts, you begin to see the makings of a democratic landslide. If the political environment remains roughly the same in November as it is today, quote, even after losing 40 seats in 2018, there’s no guarantee Republicans won’t lose more in November rote, Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin in the late may edition of inside elections, a political handicapping tip sheet. They went on to add with less than six months ago before election day. Not only is the house majority, not at risk Democrats could gain seats right now. The most likely outcome is close to the status quo and fall into a range of GOP gain of five proceeds to a democratic gain of five seats.

And cool, of course these house seats. Aren’t the only thing at stake come November. According to you, CNN zone Harry enten, there’s nothing that has happened during the Trump era to indicate that national polling that currently shows him to be unpopular and behind your Biden is wrong in 2016, for all the flack polling took national polling, had Trump losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by three to four points. They ended up losing by two with the national generic ballot. Democrats were ahead by nearly 11 points heading into the 2018 midterms. In the end, they won the national vote by now, pretty close, but before right start celebrating and Republicans begin packing their stuff up. Keep in mind that the election is still months away, a lot can still happen. And probably will. For example, the polling sluice at five 38, found a four point spread on average between the largest and smallest generic ballot margins in the last six months of an election. Now four points may seem like a pretty small number to you, but in the age of hyper partisanship and very competitive races, those point or two point differences can make a difference between losing five seats and losing 25 seats still I’ll look across the political landscape. As of today, produces a grim reality for Republicans. It could get very ugly. You’re out there for them in November. And that is the point we make new point episodes every Tuesday and Thursday, make sure to check them all up.

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