Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi joins Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman to discuss the latest 2020 election betting odds, where presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds a lead over President Trump.
We still tracking the updates on the election front. Of course, let’s not forget it is an election year. And right now, according to one odds maker, we are seeing president Trump’s odds of reelection, starting to dwindle quite significantly. When you look at the gap between him and a former vice president, Joe Biden for more on that, I want to bring on Sarbjit Bakhshi smart gets head of political markets joins us now. And Sarbjit , good to talk with you again. I mean, we highlighted this trend a couple of weeks ago, but what are you seeing now, when you think about betters, maybe shifting away from Trump’s reelection chances? Well, since the beginning of June, Trump’s chances have been coming down, um, on our market, Biden’s now trading at 53%, which is his highest ever price. And Trump’s just down at 42% to be the next president when our two point $4 million market.
So whatever has been happening over the last couple of months has really kind of worked in Joe Biden’s favor and against Trump, as better as kind of seeing Joe Biden is a more viable president potential candidate going into the election and Trump faltering as he makes his final steps up to that, that period of election. And we’ve, we’ve seen that kind of play out here in terms of his approval rating as well, in response to the current affairs crisis, uh, matching what we’re seeing in the betting markets. But beyond that, the trend itself, I mean, we had, we’d had you on for discussion when we saw Joe Biden’s odds, leapfrog president Trump’s reelection chances, but now the trend itself, uh, seems worrisome when we think about we are now in June and of course the election just months away in November. So what do you make of that?
And the odds of that shifting our flipping again, how hard is it for a candidate to flip that back after already seeing his lead deteriorate? What do I think at this stage we’re going to have to see polling in States, flipping around and favoring Trump over Biden. What we’ve seen on nine key battleground States is a very interesting trend, indeed, because right now there are three toss-up States in which I’d call Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, which are about 50 50, you’ve got three States are likely to go Democrats. So there we’re talking about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and three that are likely to go Republican Georgia, a higher Texas. So everything is kind of neatly balanced across these nine battleground States. If Trump can turn more than Georgia, Ohio, and Texas, maybe move Wisconsin, Wisconsin, maybe Turner zona. I think that’s the chance that Trump has done to kind of shift up in the likelihood of becoming the next American president.
And as we’ve highlighted, uh, in regards to some of those days, I mean, mainly Michigan and Pennsylvania, those States starting to begin the trend reversal. When we look at unemployment claims, as we highlight every Thursday here, some of those States showing some strength, maybe, uh, in reaching a bottom on unemployment claims, we’ll continue to track that. Lastly, when we think about impactful, Joe Biden’s vice presidential pick might be now, when you consider how close some of the swing States are interesting to see the one Harris, one of his old foes on the campaign trail, sail maintaining her lead as the highest odds on your market to be elected VP. How have you seen those odds, maybe fluctuate here as we move closer to the election? Well, just as Joe, Biden’s now trading as it as at its highest ever point or highest ever price on our market.
So the same for Camilla Harris, who’s now at 45%, she has a very large lead over the next person on our market. Who’s currently Val Demings at 15% or Susan Weiss at 10%. So what we see is three incredibly qualified, uh, African American women who have a law and order background, tensely, intelligent people who are young they’re around the fifties, uh, contrasting with, uh, with Joe Biden who can really bring something extra to the ticket. They’re everything that Joe Biden isn’t and where Joe Biden is doing Joe Biden, going across the States and getting as many votes as everyone predicted that he would with his background. These people can all add something very strong to that ticket and push him even further towards a victory. It’s very clear that it’s going to be a woman. I mean, he said it will be these three women are enormously qualified and they each have their fan base and the Chubb, their strengths and weak.
This is so I see that going forward. When he puts his, his marked down, he chooses his VP. There’s going to be a very strong ticket for Democrats going to November. You don’t want have to see how the markets react to all of that as well. Once the VP candidate is officially named, we’ll see how it impacts things, but Shabbat boxy. I appreciate you taking the time to smirk it’s head of political markets. Thanks again. Hey, investors, sack Guzman.